Dynamics of European Demographics

The objective of WP3 within DATASET2050 is to understand the current and future transport system from the passengers perspective, in a more detailed and thorough way than currently available. As a first step, it is necessary to better grasp passengers’ expectations, needs and requirements and their specific travel behaviour. In this context, population, and most importantly demography evolution, plays a crucial role in terms of current transport flows. Transport flows will obviously be derived from where do people live in Europe. As a general rule, fertility rate and emigration/immigration due to [un]employment levels are for the most cases the key drivers of European demographics.

Based on data from the German Federal Office for Building and Regional Planning, it has been published some days ago an interesting article on the European demographics. This article has been considered worth including in the monthly blogpost, given the synergies with the current research being performed within DATASET2050. Some general conclusions extracted from the analyses done in the article (and shown in the picture below) are the following:

  • European city suburbs have attracted new inhabitants coming both from the crowded city centres and from other surrounding (and further) rural areas
  • Both in Germany and in Poland, the trend is moving from the East to West, which clearly corresponds to the evolution of the employment levels at those areas.
  • Similar situation in Italy, where the south-north trend difference is remarkable
  • France population is growing, especially rapid in coastal areas. Population growth is quite homogeneous, given the good transport system available at country and local levels
  • In Spain, population growth is notable around Madrid, Barcelona and the coast. Population is decreasing in the north-west area of Spain and in Portugal
  • Easter Europe and the Baltic states have shrunk dramatically

Several maps and explanations zooming in different countries and cities are available at the original source.  Areas coloured green had an average annual increase in population over the 2001-2011 time span, and areas coloured brown experienced a decline in population. In areas coloured white, no significant change occurred.

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