Airport Economic Value study published!

The Modelling Airport Economic Value Study recently published (link here) has been made by the University of Westminster (Andrew Cook, Gerald Gurtner, Graham Tanner and Anne Graham) and Innaxis Research Institute (Samuel Cristobal), supporting EUROCONTROL (Denis Huet and Bruno Desart) within SESAR Project 06.03.01. The study provides a better understanding of the interdependencies of various key performance indicators (KPIs) and assesses the existence and behaviour of an airport economic optimum, in a similar way to the early 2000s, when estimating the economic en-route capacity optimum.

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By gathering for the first time real operational, financial and passenger-satisfaction-related data over 32 European airports, it was possible to develop and calibrate a model which produces reliable and realistic results. The fully calibrated results show the presence of a trade-off between the cost of extra capacity and the increase in the number of flights operated. As a consequence, all 32 airports exhibit a maximum in net income as a function of capacity, when the marginal cost of operating extra capacity is sufficiently low. This threshold in the marginal cost is, however, rather different across airports, and only a few airports can sustain a high cost of capacity: these are the largest and most congested airports, which clearly need extra capacity. This threshold is roughly consistent with the airports’ current operational cost of capacity, which means that they should be able to manage this growth, subject to the availability of investment.

The team has also developed a tool that provides access to all the features of the mathematical model with out having to dig into the equations. The underlying mathematical module is written in Python, while the interface is written in Matlab. The communication between the modules is transparent to the user and the software is capable of auto-calibrate the airport model using the existing or new data. The tool is flexible to explore the parameter space and different views of the output variables can be selected for a better understanding of the model outcomes. Results can be saved then in common format for further use (txt, csv, png, fig, etc.)

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We warmly invite you to read the full report here!

Congrats to Samuel/UoW colleagues for such a superb study ūüėČ

 

A new generation of business traveller

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The DATASET2050 project does not only examine current European passenger profiles but also looks at possible passenger types in 2035 and 2050. To develop future demand profiles, current ones are either adjusted (see Current European PAX profiles), or new profiles are developed. As there is still a lot of uncertainty regarding how we are going to live and travel in the future, and since the project follows a data-driven approach, only passenger characteristics that can be supported by data are taken into consideration. Examples for developments supported by data are the ageing population in Europe, the increase in single households and the tendency to have fewer children per household.

For 2035, six future passenger profiles for the EU28 and EFTA countries are developed. Among these, the Digital Native Business Traveller was identified as one of the main passenger types in Europe. This group takes a journey mainly for occupational reasons and it can be seen as the new generation of business traveller. However, due to the high usage of technological devices one can assume that this passenger type is constantly connected and always online in continuous digital exchange with the private life, friends and family. He or she will be in the typically age of the working population of around 24 to 64 years, which today represents the digital savvy Generation Y and Generation Z. The income level and amount for transport expenditure will be medium to high. 0.5 to 1.5 trips per capita per year are taken, either alone or accompanied by another person. A large share of this passenger type will be female as the increase in female tertiary education enrolments might lead to an increase in working women within higher professions and hence an increase in women travelling for business purposes. Finally, he or she does not mind checking in luggage but takes only hand luggage when going on short trips. Public transport, taxi or car sharing are the preferred airport access mode choices.

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Figure: The new generation of business traveller is digital savvy and constantly connected, enabled by emerging technology and new innovations to come.

This is one example of how a typical passenger group in 2035 could possibly look like. The outcome of all passenger demand profiles will be put in contrast with coming work packages (i.e. future supply profile), enabling this way a complete assessment on the European door-to-door mobility in the future. More information about the remaining passenger types, the methodology and databases can be found in the report on future passenger profiles.

SafeClouds at EASA 2016 annual event and European Commission newsletter

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SafeClouds.eu, the most advanced project to improve aviation safety through data analysis, was presented at the EASA 2016 Annual Safety Conference, held in Bratislava last November.
Carlos Alvarez, President of Innaxis, participated in the panel “Sharing and processing safety data: a vital step forward for safety?”. Carlos laid out the main goals of the project as well as our priorities for the next month, strengthening the importance of an integrated data pipeline, from low level raw data management to embedded analytics, driven by user operational questions. The integrated approach will be capable of developing data science solutions to provide all-new capabilities for safety improvements to aviation stakeholders.
You can watch the video of the session:
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In parallel, SafeClouds.eu was also selected for the INEA/European Commission newsletter. This newsletter highlighted just 6 out of the hundreds projects recently awarded within the¬†EU H2020 programme. As it is pointed in the newsletter “The (SafeClouds) project will develop a novel data mining approach for aviation safety and design innovative representations of the results in order to effectively transfer the gained to such users as airlines and air navigation service providers”

Current European PAX Profiles

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Have you ever wondered about all the different people at the airport? Almost all of us have already flown: for going on holidays, visiting friends and family or going on a business trip. Likewise, many have been sitting at the airport, waiting at the gate and watching different passengers walking past. An airport is a melting pot where people of all ages, backgrounds, income levels and interests come together. As part of the DATASET2050 project, passenger characteristics are examined and six general passenger profiles (PAX profiles) are generated to gain an understanding of what distinguishes current European air travellers.

These PAX profiles are derived using existing passenger studies as well as data on demographical, geographical, socio-economic and behavioural aspects. At first, profiles are distinguished by travel purpose, i.e. whether passenger travel for personal or for business reasons. Since the amount of passengers travelling for private reasons exceeds that of passengers travelling for business reasons (on average across all EU28 + EFTA countries ten per cent business trips), there are four groups describing leisure passengers and two groups describing business travellers, as can be seen in the figure below. Following, passenger groups are assigned to pre-defined age intervals taken from an analysis of European countries as well as respective average travel activity within the particular age group.

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Figure: PAX profiles according to travel purpose and age¬†intervals with example profile information for “Executives”, “Family and Holiday Traveller” and “Best Agers” (own depiction based on PAX profile analysis)

All six passenger groups also differ by their income level. “Executives” have a high income; “Youngsters” have a low income and the remaining passenger groups have a medium income. Income alone has a great impact on travel budget and consequently on travel behaviour, i.e. how often someone is travelling or which transport mode is used to access the airport. Furthermore, the use of technical devices throughout the entire journey depends¬†on age groups. Hence,¬†all¬†six passenger groups differ by the¬†level of frequency in regard to mobile phone and internet usage. This translates to their booking and travelling behaviour as well. “Youngsters” and “Executives” are the two passenger groups using information and communication technologies (ICT) with a high frequency. “Youngsters”, for example, are digitally savvy and more likely to complete travel related tasks online compared to the group of “Best Agers”. Such processes along the¬†journey could be online check-in or generating a boarding card on a mobile device.

The value of time also influences travel behaviour as passengers who value time a lot tend to save time along their journey and vice versa. Among all six PAX profiles, “Executives” and “Price-conscious Business Traveller” value time the most which is reflected, for instance, by their time-saving choice of hand luggage only. In contrast, “Youngsters” are young, often students or apprentices, and time rich but money poor. To compensate their low income, they tend to use public transport (often the longer access mode choice) to save money as they do not mind the additional time spent in public transport. “Family and Holiday Traveller” and “Best Agers” also have a rather low value of time.

The six passenger groups also differ by their length of stay. The trip length in terms of nights staying is another parameter influencing the amount of luggage a particular passenger is taking along the journey. The amount of nights spent at a particular destination differs both by travel purpose and by type of journey conducted. Business travellers tend to spend fewer nights per trip than leisure passengers. And “Youngsters” visiting friends in urban centres spend less nights than “Family and Holiday Traveller” on their summer vacation. In turn, this may influence the access mode selected, the time spent in luggage check-in processes, or during luggage collection at the destination airport. For instance,¬†in order to minimize time and effort accrued to respective handling processes, business passengers reduce the amount of luggage taken along. Finally, it is important to mention that one¬†person can be assigned to several PAX profiles.¬†A manager of an international company can travel for business purposes¬†(being assigned to the group of “Executives”) and in private life being a dad and flying with his¬†wife and two¬†children into the summer¬†vacation¬†(being a “Family and Holiday Traveller”).

More¬†information on the PAX profiles and the analysis¬†can be found in the DATASET2050 report “Data driven approach for a Seamless Efficient Travelling in 2050”.

SafeClouds kick off meeting

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SafeClouds.eu, a H2020 big data for safety project, coordinated by Innaxis, kicked off earlier this month.

SafeClouds is the recently launched H2020 aviation-safety project. It is coordinated by Innaxis, with 15 additional entities (including airlines, ANSPs, EASA, Eurocontrol, various research entities, etc) from 8 different countries.
The aim of SafeClouds is to improve aviation safety by developing state-of-art big data and data analysis tools. The consortium will build a coordinated platform to combine and share data among different aviation actors.
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DATASET2050 presentation at Data Science in Aviation Workshop (EASA, Cologne-Germany)

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The annual event exploring¬†Data Science in Aviation (ComplexWorld funded; organized by Innaxis) has recently celebrated its fourth edition this past September 8th¬†2016. The event was hosted on the EASA premises in Cologne, Germany . This year it highlighted a presentation of the¬†DATASET2050 project, “Data Science for Mobility”, by project coordinator Samuel Cristobal (Innaxis).

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On the Data Science In Aviation event:

Previous editions of the Data Science in Aviation event were hosted in Madrid 2013, Paris 2014 and Brussels 2015. The popular event usually draws attendance from more than 80 individuals from top European and worldwide aviation entities (including Airbus, Eurocontrol, Boeing, EASA, Airlines, Airports, ANSPs, SESAR , Universities, etc) along with ICT and data-related entities (including CERN researchers, Fraunhofer, Infrastructure-related, and various universities). Notable presenters from the 2016 edition included EASA, Innaxis, NATS, Eurocontrol, Boeing, ENAC and Fraunhofer.

In terms of the event agenda and content, the presentations has traditionally outlined how data science is understood as a useful set of fundamental principles that support and guide the principled extraction of information and knowledge from aviation data. Furthermore, the discipline leans on well-known data-mining techniques, and goes far beyond these techniques with successful data-science paradigms which provide specific applications in various air transport areas (safety, performance, mobility etc).

 

On DATASET2050 Samuel’s presentation:

The event also highlighted a key presentation from Innaxis project coordinator, Samuel Cristobal. Samuel presented five different points on data science in aviation.

  • First, he explained how some of the data science tools, techniques and concepts have been used in the mobility context, specifically using the DATASET2050 project as a case example.
  • Second, Samuel explained the different door to door phases under analysis (door-kerb; kerb-gate; gate-gate; kerb-door), which helps to delve deeper in the different data science components within aviation phases.
  • Third, Samuel outlined the different links between project objectives and overall Flightpath2050 goals.
  • The fourth point explored mobility data in Europe, and the value of the DATASET approach in this context.
  • The presentation concluded with a fifth and final point announcing the next communication actions. The full presentation can be accessed here: https://www.dropbox.com/s/91julyl8gsij2k9/DATASET_SC_v1.pdf?dl=0

 

In sum, the fourth edition of the Data Science in Aviation event was an excellent opportunity for dissemination of DATASET2050. This was in conjunction with a fruitful exchange of ideas with other aviation data scientists, some of whom working with similar tools in other sub-areas far from mobility. We hope to continue this momentum of knowledge exchange and look forward to a potential fifth edition of the popular event.

 

You can watch DATASET2050 Samuel’s presentation here, and the rest of the event videos at Innaxis’ Vimeo channel.

Mobility presentation at Data Science In Aviation workshop (EASA, 2016)

The annual event exploring¬†Data Science in Aviation (ComplexWorld funded; organized by Innaxis) has recently celebrated its fourth edition this past September 8th¬†2016. The event was hosted on the EASA premises in Cologne, Germany . This year it highlighted a presentation of the¬†DATASET2050 project, “Data Science for Mobility”, by project coordinator Samuel Cristobal (Innaxis).

 

 

On the Data Science In Aviation event:

Previous editions of the Data Science in Aviation event were hosted in Madrid 2013, Paris 2014 and Brussels 2015. The popular event usually draws attendance from more than 80 individuals from top European and worldwide aviation entities (including Airbus, Eurocontrol, Boeing, EASA, Airlines, Airports, ANSPs, SESAR , Universities, etc) along with ICT and data-related entities (including CERN researchers, Fraunhofer, Infrastructure-related, and various universities). Notable presenters from the 2016 edition included EASA, Innaxis, NATS, Eurocontrol, Boeing, ENAC and Fraunhofer.

In terms of the event agenda and content, the presentations has traditionally outlined how data science is understood as a useful set of fundamental principles that support and guide the principled extraction of information and knowledge from aviation data. Furthermore, the discipline leans on well-known data-mining techniques, and goes far beyond these techniques with successful data-science paradigms which provide specific applications in various air transport areas (safety, performance, mobility etc).

 

On DATASET2050 Samuel’s presentation:

The event also highlighted a key presentation from Innaxis project coordinator, Samuel Cristobal. Samuel presented five different points on data science in aviation.

  • First, he explained how some of the data science tools, techniques and concepts have been used in the mobility context, specifically using the DATASET2050 project as a case example.
  • Second, Samuel explained the different door to door phases under analysis (door-kerb; kerb-gate; gate-gate; kerb-door), which helps to delve deeper in the different data science components within aviation phases.
  • Third, Samuel outlined the different links between project objectives and overall Flightpath2050 goals.
  • The fourth point explored mobility data in Europe, and the value of the DATASET approach in this context.
  • The presentation concluded with a fifth and final point announcing the next communication actions. The full presentation can be accessed here: https://www.dropbox.com/s/91julyl8gsij2k9/DATASET_SC_v1.pdf?dl=0

 

In sum, the fourth edition of the Data Science in Aviation event was an excellent opportunity for dissemination of DATASET2050. This was in conjunction with a fruitful exchange of ideas with other aviation data scientists, some of whom working with similar tools in other sub-areas far from mobility. We hope to continue this momentum of knowledge exchange and look forward to a potential fifth edition of the popular event.

Recent News from Innaxis – August Newsletter

Every two months Innaxis publishes a newsletter with curated content from all of the Innaxis researchers giving updates on the most innovative developments in complexity science research.

Click the image below to read the August newsletter, covering activities from June-May.

 





Information, time, knowledge

We live in a world that gathers exponentially increasing amounts of information/data coming from endless sources, and a limited time to analyse it.

What is the current speed of “creating” information/data? What about knowledge/wisdom? What is the role of Data Science and Big Data in this context?

Food for thought for your -deserved- summer break! Enjoy, charge your batteries and get ready for a 2016/2017 year full of cutting-edge research, innovation (and Innaxis blogposts!)

 

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Innaxis at ICRAT 2016

Between June 20 to 24, our PhD student Seddik Belkoura went at the very doorstep of the famous Rocky Balboa Statue, as the seventh edition of the International Conference on Air Transport (ICRAT) was held at Drexel University (Philadelphia, USA) . This successful event, co-organised by the FAA (Federal Aviation Administration-USA) and EUROCONTROL, put the emphasis the next generation of researchers, with a strong participations of students keen on interacting with more mature and expert minds.

 

In Seddik’s presentation during the conference, he wanted to highlight the dynamic nature of the delay propagation process in Air Transportation. He showed in his talk that abnormal delays at a given airport (those with an unexpected magnitude) can perturb the way the delays are propagated in “normal” conditions. The quantity of “surprise” necessary to disrupt an airport can be quantifiable, and an approximation of the additional delay necessary to disrupt the propagative dynamics of each airport have been proposed by Seddik. The audience‚Äôs interest at this point indicated that work have still have to be done to master all the complex behaviours of some processes like delay propagations.

 

The event was a success, and the areas of investigation within Air Transportation were quite wide. One special note have been noticed by Seddik: the growing number of presentation (and attention) to drones. The recentness of the concept and the velocity with which it develops and spreads is such that it deserves a special attention. Legislation are not yet fully explicit and a lot of work to design the “future” if happening right now. It is the moment to use our experience with Aviation to better fashion the drone system. Specifically, the importance of data should be pointed out, to allow a better development and a continuous improvement of this new and growing complex system.

 

Seddik’s paper and the presentation about drones will be soon available on the official website of the conference (http://www.icrat.org/)

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